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Fears and hopes
Guess you know Bobby McFerrin’s “Don’t Worry, Be Happy” (youtube). When the wall came down in Berlin some 19 years ago it happened that this easy swinging a cappella sound was the somehow perfect soundtrack for the ambiguity in the mood of the reunified Germans. Ambiguity of fears and hopes – and what followed really was political “change management XXL” – with the inevitable pains of transformation.
Now, this is end of October 2008 and I feel a certain resemblance to the situation of 1989. In these days a lot of commentators suppose that the financial crisis is just the beginning of a longer lasting downturn of the global economy.
One last look back
Futurists and scenario planning people are prepared for the discontinuities of complex systems. This time the wild card was to expect. Warnings date back to 2006 (nypost.com) and even 2004 (abajournal.com). By the way recession cycles of market economy are observed since its beginnings. And Talebs book about the improbable “black swan” has been written in 2007. But who wants to hear bad news? We have to. That’s why we are implementing early warning systems and pay experts, even futurists.
Looking forward – Opportunities in times of transformation
This is the time of cutbacks and layoffs, but that is only the one side. At O’Reilly’s Web2Expo Europe some days ago I heard Robin Daniels (Salesforce.com / Cloud Computing: Freedom to Focus on Innovation”). One of the messages was: “Don’t optimize, but innovate!”. So don’t worry to much, Read the rest of this entry »
Startups? The party is over (tag it just “pink slip”)
We will see mass extinction of some tiny web services – so if you have some assets there, like some thousand relevant bookmarks, pictures or documents on some free service, now is the time to save it on your harddrive. Maybe tomorrow the server is down, maybe not. I have seen this all, when the first dotcom-bubble burst, and it will be just the same procedure. The big web 2.0 services (and Googzilla’s free services) will survive, but maybe will not be free anymore … Next post will be about the good news, the chances of this cleaning up, I’ll try! Interested in the tech sector, advantages of the crisis? For now read 10 Ways the Financial Meltdown Impacts Tech – Seeking Alpha