STOA Report "Looking Forward in the ICT & Media Industries"

Today  “Web 2.0″ is just mainstream and seems more or less boring as a subject of research. The prevailing question is how to realize practical and efficient Web 2.0 solutions, what to do and not to do with social networks, social media – as a user and in the business perspective. As a typical example see a lengthy blog post like this from Dion Hinchcliffe’s Web 2.0 blog – this is what a lot of people care about: 50 Essential Strategies For Creating A Successful Web 2.0 Product 

But there is still the demand for critical assessment of the dynamics, the effects and side effects of the transformation (revolution, yep) of ICT and the media industry. Even politicians have come to understand the issue, lately when they realized the role of Web 2.0 in becoming the 44th president of the USA (BTW I have been blogging in last July: “Maybe Obama can win with swarm mobilisation effects in the internet – and is the first “user generated president” of the USA.”) 

In the last year I had been asked to contribute some statement in the STOA report “Looking Forward in the ICT & Media Industries”. The acronym STOA means Science and Technology Options Assessment (for the European Parliament) and you are educated enough to enjoy the allusion to the ancient philosophy school.  

Critical assessment of Web 2.0 and the user’s social capital 

Don’t get me wrong – my attitude concerning Web 2.0 is rather affirmative (see my record) . But as with most technological innovations there are some downsides. To know them is just a necessity if you want to secure the acceptance and value of a technology in the long run. After the “BeaconGate” there was a second “Facebook scandal” (the terms of service thing) some days ago, which approved my “critical stance” concerning the privacy and value issue. 

Schroll further explains: “The productivity of the users is manifested in user generated contents and thus becomes a part of the value chain too. Even the mere internet activity without intended ‘value creation’ results in a clickstream which can be used as a valuable source of market research, user pro-filing and highly specific ad targeting. The user’s social capital in the digital realm of Web 2.0 consists of three value sources: contacts, content contributes and clickstreams. In the participatory environment of Web 2.0 the risk of ‘triple exploitation’ is rising. The platform provider e.g. knows how to use the ‘social graph’ for viral marketing, how to use the user’s contents for free and how to ‘wiretap’ the user to enable behavioural targeting” … (p68)

Get the report here for free: STOA Report “Looking Forward in the ICT & Media Industries” (PDF) + Executive Summary

Update 2009-02-26

Of course the Web 2.0 issue is only one focus among others in the report. Here are some more facts about the report (text from summary page):

• In its Introduction, the report clarifies the basic concepts of “networked electronic media”, “Web 2.0″ and “User Generated Content”. 
• Chapter 2 deals with Technological Developments and Technology Visions and provides facts and figures about innovations of hardware, software and networks important for media industries and Web 2.0 media formats. It considers at some length semantic technologies and the vision of the “semantic Web”, and closes by looking at long term media technology visions. 
• Chapter 3 positions European Media Industries in the global context, analysing the audio-visual sector, the gaming sector, and the mobile Internet in more depth. 
• Chapter 4 is devoted to networked electronic media associated with Web 2.0 and User Generated Content. The basics of Web 2.0 media are explained in terms of the users’ media experience and in terms of Web 2.0 business models, before addressing UGC-Platforms as a specific type of media. 
• The final Chapter 5 “About Exploitation, Remuneration and Copyright Policies in Web 2.0 environments” describes the new media business and outlines policy relevant insights. Implications and side effects of these new media focus on the possibility of hidden exploitation of the “prosumers” – consumers who also produce content -, potential impacts on the labour market in the media sector, with respect to privacy and with respect to more general transformations of the media industries due to automated or semi-automatic media production. There is then an extensive discussion of the appropriate (micro)payment infrastructure for the Web 2.0 environment. Last not least the issue of Digital Rights Management technologies is raised in the context of copyright policies in Web 2.0 environments.

Will Google own the web of the future? Picture source: mobilementalism.com

No, this is not an other post with a narrow focus on the new browser from the wellknown company. The following text has been published first on the website of  Z_punkt The Foresight Company. Maybe the browser release is a milestone in the company’s and the web’s history (up to now there is a difference). It is a good opportunity for some folks to look back and forward – e.g. What to Expect from Google in the Next 10 Years. And the present, uncontroversial facts are excting as well.

The reactions in “Slow Europe” to Google’s coup are remarkable and come as expected. Some would like to forbid that speed of innovation, at least they are crying … and they know “Hey, we are _definitly_ out of the (search business) game! We even do not know the rules!”.

Time ago I really enjoyed the post of Michael Arrington about some desperate efforts of European hmm… “research politics”. The post closed: “… no wonder that many of the best European entrepreneurs keep coming to the U.S. to start companies.”

Chrome – Web-Herrschaft oder nette Innovation?

Als am 2. September der Browser Chrome in über 100 Ländern zum Download bereitgestellt wurde, war dies dem deutschen Fernsehen eine Meldung in den Abendnachrichten wert. Die Blogosphäre bebte, die Kommentare der Wirtschaftspresse überschlugen sich mit Interpretationen.  Die Bedeutung dieses Software-Release war begründet in der Urheberschaft. Google, der Marktführer der Internetsuche und kapitalstärkster Akteur im Webgeschäft, war der Schöpfer des neuen Browsers. Die Überraschung war geglückt, zumal CEO Schmidt Jahre zuvor Pläne für einen Google-Browser dementiert hatte.
Die Erwartungen an das neue Produkt waren hochgesteckt, denn Google gilt geradezu als Innovationsfabrik und ist neben Apple eines der Unternehmen der Welt, das es versteht den Output der Innovationsabteilungen in sprudelnde Umsatzquellen zu verwandeln.

Make it or buy it – Die Innovationsfabrik in Zahlen
Das intellektuelle Kapital des Unternehmens ist neben der weltumspannenden Serverfarm das wichtigste Vermögen. Google weiss diesen Schatz, die rastlose Hirnmasse seiner Mitarbeiter, in Schwung zu halten. Bereits zweimal wurde die Firma zum beliebtesten der Arbeitgeber der USA gekürt. Neben der idealen, offenen Atmosphäre für die verwöhnte Kreativklasse gibt es jede Menge Extras für die umworbenen Angestellten.

Lernen können Unternehmen allerdings auch von der “zupackenden Art” bei der Akquisitionstätigkeit. So hat sich Google von 2001 bis heute 54 Firmen einverleibt, darunter die bekannten Schwergewichte Youtube (1,65 Mrd. USD) und da Werbenetz DoubleClick (3,1 Mrd. USD) – das entspricht 7,7 Akquisitionen pro Jahr. Während andere Unternehmen dieser Größe durch komplexe Managementstrukturen und “Intrigantenstadl” gelähmt werden, wieselt Google immer noch wendig wie ein junges Startup durch die Web-Wirtschaft.

Neuro-Branding oder: Google, die “Marke der Herzen”
Über 130 Produkte hat Google bislang ausgestoßen, wobei diese entsprechend des Geschäftsmodells meistens Teil des Gratis-Imperiums sind. Von Google Maps, Earth, Talk und Mail, bis zum Browser Chrome – die Marke macht glücklich, denn die B2C-Dienste kosten keinen Cent. So setzt der Markenkern tief in unseren Hirnen, im Belohnnungszentrum den Anker, umgarnt uns das bunte Logo mit immer neuen Geschenken, versetzt uns in infantile Arglosigkeit.

Googles Welt auf tönernen Füßen?
Einen Haken hat die Sache allerdings. Letztlich hat Google nicht wirklich etwas zu verschenken, über kurz oder lang werden alle Dienste rentabel gemacht über das Geschäftsmodell Kontext-Advertising. Google “plakatiert” das gesamte Web immer präziser mit seiner Mini-Werbung Adsense und Adwords. Unser aller Durchklick auf die möglichst unseren Interessen entsprechenden Textanzeigen ist es, der das Wunder des googleschen “Gratis-Web” möglich macht.

In dieser Hinsicht hat es die agile Company im Januar 2008 eiskalt erwischt. War etwa im Oktober 2007 der traumhafte Zuwachs von 37% bezahlter Klicks zu verzeichnen, so bedeuteten die 532 Millionen Klicks im Januar 2008 null Prozent Wachstum gegenüber dem Vorjahr. Möglicherweise klingelten seitdem die Alarmglocken bei Google und die Zeitpläne der Innovations-Roadmap wurden verschärft. Vielleicht sehen wir jetzt die Anstrenungen um die mobile Plattform Android, den “Wikipedia-Killer” Knol.com oder den “revolutionären” Browser Chrome vor diesem Hintergrund mit etwas anderen Augen. Google prescht an allen Fronten nach vorne und will seine Vorherrschaft durch den Vorsprung der Innovation sichern. Die beschleunigte Evolution des Web ist insofern nur das Nebenprodukt dieser strategischen Logik.

Zitate

“Google wird immer mehr zur unkontrollierten Weltmacht; die sich nicht in die Karten schauen lässt.” Gerald Reischl (Die Google-Falle), 3.9.2008 Newsletter ibusiness.de

“Google greift nicht nur Microsoft an, sondern möglicherweise das gesamte Ökosystem des Web, in dem Firefox (Get back the Web) ja eine ganz konstruktive Rolle gespielt hat”, Willi Schroll, 3.9.2008 Newsletter ibusiness.de

Links

Chrome, Gears, Android – Googles Angriff auf Microsoft
ZDNet.de IT-Business-Blog, 3.9.2008,
cgi.zdnet.de/itmanager/

List of acquisitions by Google – Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_acquisitions_by_Google

List of Google products – Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Google_products

Web’s future: Google’s new battlefield – the browser
Willi Schroll, future facts blog 3.9.2008
blog.futurefacts.net/2008/09/02/googles-new-battlefield-the-browser/

Will 2008 Be Google’s End Of Innocence?
Michael Arrington, TechCrunch Blog 16.6.2008
www.techcrunch.com/2008/06/16/will-2008-be-googles-end-of-innocence/

Chrome browser: Next step of Google to rule the web? Picture: blogoscoped.com

SIGNAL: Google has acknowledged the existence of browser “Google Chrome”. It will be released today.

Details e.g. at blogoscoped.com

CONTEXT: Google has grown over the years and became one of the biggest economical power structures worldwide.

It looks as if Google Inc. will go on to shape the world of the beginning 21st century like no other company. Think of market domination in search and online advertising business – at least in most countries. Think of the Android initiative to leave the desktop and come to grips with the growth market of mobile devices. And time to remember the Cassandra words of “Google EPIC 2014″ everyone enjoyed in 2004. Read once again:

In 2014, Googlezon unleashes EPIC, the Evolving Personalized Information Construct, which pays users to contribute any information they know into a central grid, allowing the system to automatically create news tailored to individuals, entirely without journalists. (Wikipedia).

Today we have not that envisioned Googlezon (Google-Amazon) monster of the EPIC kind – but, yes, there are six long years until 2014 … What we actually have is:

• Half-right forecast: We have lot of uploading of user-generated value; users are not paid with money but with the currencies of attention and reputation
• Personalization as forecasted – from iGoogle to Netvibes or personalized rss readers
• Media crisis (print + TV), debate about journalists as endangered species
• Not forecasted: Amazon’s digital goods strategy: the hardware platform Kindle offers some interesting possibilities in the future
• Not forecasted: Google’s attack at Microsoft (and Mozilla?) with todays release of Chrome

Folks this is the operating system war in full action. One between Microsoft and Google. …. Google’s browser is just that – a competitive strategy to maintain their stronghold and defend their current search offering. furrier.org

RELEVANCE: With the browser initiative Google is not only attacking Microsoft’s Internet Explorer, but Google is setting the agenda to penetrate the “web’s ecosystem” on a more fundamental level. The browser as interface is a strategic point with new control options. Maybe this is an other wakeup call for the web and media business – and some political regulators.

Update 2008-09-02: Forgot an important link: Official Google Blog: A fresh take on the browser
Maybe the download will start with the next “innocent announcement” post at Official Google Blog. BTW hang your antenna into the twitterverse and you see a lot of guys analyzing the move as comeback of (cold) browser war – so Google reminds me a bit of the Kaukasus issue, just a silly coincidence! http://search.twitter.com/search?q=chrome+browser+war

FACT: There are some projects, which want to be Google killers – for good reasons. But Google’s advance in user base, intellectual property , human capital and financial power is discouraging.

Is this a hot summer for so called Google killers? Some days ago Cuil (spell “cool”) was launched. They are searching 121,617,892,992 web pages, the front page says. That must be the “Deep Web”, which we analysts and researcher would like so much to have on our fingertips. But the galactic volume of the index is worth nothing, when other factors are not in tune. And keep in mind the immense power of Google. They have and hold the user base, Yahoo and MSN only knocking at the door …

CONTEXT: Desparately searching the weakness of market dominant search company Google

A lot of people worldwide think about the Achilles heel of Google – and may be there is more than one. Just remind the privacy issue and the (knowledge) power concentration which is unprecedented in history. It would be devastating for Google’s business model, if the users are seriously losing trust.

“Google is slowly embracing a full-blown behavioral targeting over its vast network of services and sites,” said Jeffrey Chester, executive director of the Center for Digital Democracy. He said that Google, through its vast data collection and sophisticated data analysis tools, “knows more about consumers than practically anyone.” August 12, 2008 Web firms acknowledge tracking behavior without consent – Los Angeles Time

Not to forget that Google is more than search, it is an empire of free services today – e.g. millions of users give a lot of more or less sensitive data to the mail, calender and spreadsheet services of Google. And think of the coming Google Health – finally the perfect opportunity to show costly ads for Viagra, Cialis etc.

PRODUCT: FREEBASE/PARALLAX (the semantic web revolution committee proudly presents .-)

Parallax, a novel browsing interface designed by David Huynh to manipulate Freebase, shows how contextual connections can be made with machine readable data to provide a much richer results set which in turn can spawn fascinating visual representations, and more.

Freebase is the foundational 800lb gorilla in the semantic space, quietly building momentum to create a ‘global knowledge base: a structured, searchable, writeable and editable database built by a community of contributors, and open to everyone….It could be described as a data commons’. … August 12, 2008 The Future of the Web | ZDNet.com

RELEVANCE: It’s all about relevance, stupid! In an info tsunami world findability and relevance are key.

Google search of today is so Gutenberg – what you get is … pages! Stupid web pages, where you have to scroll a lot or have to use the page search of your browser. In the future this will change and we actually will have units of knowledge, more fine-grained than narrative text pages. And now please enjoy the Freebase Parallax video. It is impressive. If you are a bit bored by the rather academic example (American history) please think about a search process in your business context and what the smart features of Parallax could do for you.

UPDATE: MORE ABOUT FREEBASE

As a future researcher I strive to keep in mind the big picture, being rather tolerant with some weaknesses of a promising approach or tool under development. Recommended readings for a deeper understanding of Metaweb’s Freebase:

• Freebase Parallax Taunts Us With Awesome Semantic Web Video – ReadWriteWeb (August 13, 2008) – Marshall Kirkpatrick points to the critical gap between the video demo and the actual state of Freebase concerning content coverage. You can try things for yourself here, but should not expect to use it like Google with any question in mind: Freebase Parallax
• Freebase: Dispelling The Skepticism – ReadWriteWeb (May 28, 2008) – Alex Iskolds interesting point: “When it comes to defining the meanings of things, Freebase is focused on community, with collective editing, attribution, and collaboratively built semantics. This last point is quite crucial – the founders of Freebase believe that meaning has to emerge from the collaboration between users. As such, Freebase is one of the first experiments of web-scale social contracts.” – Some comment: I like crowdsourcing, but the problem is, that there is no Moore’s Law concerning the performance of the “human processor”, the brains of the participants. The approach for the future web should be “distinctively hybrid” I suppose – with a lot of smart algorithms to keep pace with the accelerating (!) change dynamics of the web content and structures.
  

Updates

• 2008-08-14 LT 10:11: UPDATE: MORE ABOUT FREEBASE
• 2008-08-13 LT 01:06: some clarification in the last paragraph