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Three posts about ecological singularity and the avalanche of change
The Eco-Singularity is near. Preface (I) - … Definition (II) - … Solutions (III)
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The planet issue
Part I was about getting there, the backstory of why and when I wanted to get deeper into the issue of “PSP” – planet saving politics : ) Before I start to explain that strange neologism “eco-singularity” let us have some reality check: Where are we today, about eleven months after the failed summit? A reality check is quite easy since there is a meeting in these days again.
Yesterday, today and tomorrow: Climate talks without adequate political will
In Tianjin, China, negotiators from 177 nations are meeting for U.N.-mandated climate talks . Guess we will see the same syndrome as in Kopenhagen. Even after this years extreme weather events (from Poland to Russia to Pakistan to bring some to mind – and: yes I know the difference of weather and climate!) we do not see “adequate response”. Diagnosis: The econo-techno-political system in it’s entirety just is not capable to process the (mostly unambigous) input of science into the output of necessary decisions.
We are over capacity! Will innovation stretch our limited ressources somehow? Image source: Wackernagel 2010
Connect the both time series. We are part of non-linear systems – surprising changes to the worse are probable. Image source: Munich re 2004
There has been a future conference (Übermorgenkongress) on October 19/20 in Oldenburg. The issue was living in 2020: food, body, luxury, identity in 2020.
I have had the opportunity to go a bit beyond my focus there as a technology analyst and care for my more speculative side as futurist. Normally I resist the temptation to talk about time horizons like this one, when there is no really deep research before, but in this case it was more like a nice “thought experiment”. See for yourself – sorry, preso is only available in German up to now.
This presentation is “post hoc”, the slides have not been shown at the event, since the event format was delibertely “no powerpoint please”. This is to avoid some disadvantages of powerpoint presentations, but I created this one to share my thoughts with a broader audience.
Human Enhancement Technology – Logical Evolution or Pandora’s Box?
The realm of technologizing the human being is a persistant issue in foresight, let alone science fiction. I guess that I am in a minority position in the Read the rest of this entry »
superstructgame.net: superthreats 2019
Some weeks ago the wellknown “Institute for the Future” (IFTF) started an experiment with the crowdsourcing of future scenarios and solution finding. I was too busy with projects and customers to analyze all these ideas, let alone to write a review. Simple question: Does it work? I do not know. It depends on the initial purpose. In terms of quantity it was a success. User generated future in numbers:
- # 7,061 players
- # 536 superstructures (i.e. concepts to save the world)
- # year 2053 = new survival horizon; thanks to the creative ideas of the players the survival horizon of mankind is now set to 2053 (I will send you the formula, if I found it)
Obviously this is a serious game. But is it more than a game? Can anyone, politicians, CEOs, plain citizens seriously base future decisions on cumulated non-experts opinion? This is an
Daniel G. Nocera, MIT - Photo Donna Coveney
FACT: Daniel Nocera (MIT) developed a new catalyst for the storage of solar power. The catalyst is much cheaper than the precious metal platinum.
Chemist Daniel Nocera, head of the M.I.T.’s Solar Revolution Project, has found a substitute for platinum (>USD 1,700/ounce). The components of the catalyst are the cobalte (USD 2.25) and phoshor (USD 0.05). Concerning the components this means a cost effectiveness factor of around 1,000. The discovery is seen as breakthrough.
CONTEXT: The advance is a key discovery in the context of efforts to create artificial photosynthesis.
Researchers have made a major advance in inorganic chemistry that could lead to a cheap way to store energy from the sun. Technology Review
RELEVANCE: Efficient local solar systems (“solar at home” – with no storage problem) change the game.
- There is an increased competitiveness of solar power and an impact for conventional energy generation and infrastructures
- Technology to store energy is relevant beyond solar energy generation, e.g. volatile wind power
- Winners: The more autonomous “solar prosumer” (esp. in sun rich zones).
- Loosers: Fossil based energy companies
- Comeback of the hydrogen vision as a realistic scenario is possible – even with the hydrogen car getting the energy from the rooftop
- Solar society* before 2020 in some regions of the world
(* “solar society” i.e. with a solar energy share >> 50%? – I have no definition up to now)
RELATED POSTS
SOURCES
- MIT News Office: ‘Major discovery’ from MIT primed to unleash solar revolution
- Technology Review: Solar-Power Breakthrough
- Scientific American: Hydrogen Power on the Cheap–Or at Least, Cheaper
Update 2008-08-03
- Picture + hyperlink MIT News Office
Some personal remarks
Today it gets a bit personal and subjective, sorry for that. Ok, it is quite inevitable that on the occasion of G8 some “selected” men come together, men which have met the selection criteria of a political system, as it is today in the early 21st century, sometimes a strange fabric of political, of media and economic power. Great opportunity to see the elected leaders Bush, Berlusconi and Sarkozy at one place and analyzing their different “semiotics of power”. When I watch the scene, their “tv faces”, their postures then there seems to be some contrast to the severity of the situation ahead (maybe I am somehow biased as a futurist and analyst).
Picture 1: Global Solar Market 2005-2020, McKinsey Quarterly, The economics of solar power, June 2008; picture 2: DESERTEC Concept, TREC
SIGNAL: NEW SOLAR POWER REPORT
The economics of solar power, June 2008 (McKinsey Quarterly)
“By 2020, hundreds of billions of dollars of investment capital will probably boost global solar-generating capacity 20 to 40 times higher than its current level.”
