Mobile social semantic web evolving - it is so 3.0!

Today I want to start a series around the emerging issue “web 3.0″, the controversial buzzword with its dazzling meaning. Like with the forerunner “web 2.0″ sober clarifications will help us discerning hype from reality. Today we start with three seemingly unjoined signals from the domains of consumer electronics fairs, web debate and killer startups .-)

Things are networked and start to speak - Nabaztag rabbit

SIGNAL 1: IFA fair opens up to household appliances – maybe they are preparing for the internet of things

Today the IFA fair is starting in Berlin. The first time the worlds largest consumer electronics fair will be sharing the spotlight with household appliances like washers and dryers. Two facts from the market trends department:

• Trend: From “passive cocooning” to “active cocooning”, e.g. having guests and cooking at home. Funny symptom: A lot of shows around flat, garden, house and … the kitchen. You will hardly find a minute in German tv these days, when there is no cooking show running on one channel or the other.) As a consequence of this “active cocooning / social cocooning” trend there is a growth market for household appliances.
• Growth market household appliances: Market research firm Freedonia Group forecasts an increase by 3.1 percent each year through 2011 (redOrbit)

But there should be an other good reason for IFA fair to open up to the wider spectrum of devices. In the next years we will see a jump in the ict evolution. Maybe it will be more radical than the innovations brought by web 2.0 with the blogosophere, youtube, social networking, Google maps etc. that changed lives and business.

In the web 3.0 aera a lot of things, now stupid and silent, will have an ongoing “conversation” with us and together. They will be networked and are broadcasting their sensor data, search for saving opportunities and the best place and price for their own recycling. The wellknown Nabaztag rabbit of today will be conceived as a rather stupid interface in retrospect.

IFA Tip: If you are going to visit IFA avoid being bored by the next super size flatscreen. Better find the places, where current research projects are presented. At the Science and Technology Forum you will have showcases of tomorrow’s tech with issues like Alternate Reality Games, 3D blogs or cooperative traffic. Looks like Robert Scoble is at showstoppers event.

SIGNAL 2: Buzzword “pragmatic web” – another round in the controversy concerning the semantic web

Stephen Downes’ recent article Ten Futures: Where Science Fiction Could Become Real in the we magazine starts with point one “The Pragmatic Web – Forget about the Semantic Web.” It was heard in the community of semwebbies, skeptics and anti-semwebbies. There is a popularity count of 662 diggs up to now, which shows a lot of relevance attribution (digg).

Stephen Downes, working as a senior researcher (National Research Council Canada http://www.downes.ca/me/index.htm), seems to be a bit angry or at least impatient with the semantic web progress (or goals?). We have to go into details, because “semantic web” has different meanings to different people. We should not start bashing until we know who and which we mean. We will check these complex issues in an other post, promised.

SIGNAL 3: Web 3.0 just starting out there. See something like “Intention Broadcasting” of Zipipop.

Intention Broadcasting is the process of spreading awareness of your intentions via information and communication technologies. Think status messaging with an emphasis on the future. Zipipop at Flickr

Dear reader, maybe you do not use microblogging tools like twitter (I have a mixed audience, I know). But maybe  you use status messages in your Skype app at least. There starts the new quality, looking quite ordinary. It is no accident that the metaphor of twitter is the swarm of tweeting birds. The tiny bits of information (twitter’s tagline: “What are you doing?”) must not be underscored! They are the means of social coordination, the glue of interaction systems in the context of your social network. So there is this extra dimension beyond the semantics. You see the issue of the “pragmatic web” right here, where the situational context determines meaning. The semantics is not enough – by definition.

In nuce: Encyclopedic knowledge like in Wikipedia is not enough. Semantic structures are fine, but they are not enough for the understanding of people, their situations, intentions, interests. There is a lot of wisdom in the metaphor “Intention Broadcasting” as used by Zipipop.

CONTEXT: The technological evolution of wired and wireless networks, web, media and behavioral patterns.

RELEVANCE: Web 3.0 is just emerging and will change your business in the next 5+ years. We have to figure out, what it is and how it works.

So I think it is time for another hype check. I have done one in 2006 concerning web 2.0 (resulting in the web2.0report.de). What it means for the masses and the real business beyond the web geek minority. Today I want to start a series of posts around “web 3.0″. For your convenience get the rss feed or the newsletter version of my blog.

iPhone timeline 1999-2008 (iphonegold.org)

UPDATE 2010-10-09: My prediction was rather risky in July of 2008 and it has been proven correct. In April 2010 I even have been taking part to organize the “1st European Augmented Reality Conference” ARBcon.eu. If you are interested in AR/MR and a contact just join the Linkedin group or the Xing Augmented Reality Group (350+)

Future fact: Super convergence of mobile connectivity, the social web and contextual intelligence will create an eco-system of mixed reality applications.

Well, the iPhone 3G just has been released. Not the quantum leap hysteria like in the release of iPhone 1.0. But what comes to my mind is the wellknown quote of the cyberpunk author William Gibson: “The future is already here – it is just unevenly distributed.”

There is a “digg of the day” for me showing the iPhone timeline starting with Dec 15 1999 – the day when Apple registered the domain iPhone.org. Means: (i) Steve Jobs keen vision started in the last century, I never doubted that he is ahead of times, (ii) progress needs a bit of patience too. Now, what will we see on this timeline in 2010/2011? I am quite sure that augmented reality stuff is leaving the labs in the very near future. Here is a short trip into one trend vector of the future mobile device – mixed reality.

Check the nutrients of your food (Mac Funamizu 2008)

View the past history of a place (Mac Funamizu 2008)

SOURCE OF INSPIRATION FOR THE MIXED REALITY SCENARIO: Since Feb 2008 Mac Funamizu created a cool design study, shown on his blog in six posts up to now with a lot of images. Last one published today: Part 6: “Future of Mobile Search- Power of Visualization” – visit his works part 1-5 too! Not enough? Just two more hints – visit demos of innovators at e.g. Nokia (Demo at youtube) and e.g. Enkin from the the Android developers community.

RELEVANCE: Super convergence of IT trends will lead to the paradigm of “information transparency” in the real world. [+] New business patterns and models will emerge. [-] New challenges for protecting your privacy and security will arise.

(Mac Funamizu’s work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 Unported License)

FORECAST: IDC’s new whitepaper offers updated growth projections and new findings expected to impact business and society based on new data and analysis that indicate:

• At 281 billion gigabytes (281 exabytes), the digital universe in 2007 was 10% bigger than originally estimated
• With a compound annual growth rate of almost 60%, the digital universe is growing faster and is projected to be nearly 1.8 zettabytes (1,800 exabytes) in 2011, a 10-fold increase over the next five years
• Your “Digital Shadow” – that is, all the digital information generated about the average person on a daily basis – now surpasses the amount of digital information individuals actively create themselves
• … eWaste … Electronic waste is accumulating at more than 1 billion units a year (emc.com)
  

Amazing data, not to mention the standard and new sources of spam and distraction, email, im, microblogging etc.

RELEVANCE: There is a physical ecological aspect of the exploding it universe – energy consumption of the billions of devices and mountains of electronic waste, mostly containing some toxic components.

There is a social / cultural / psychological ecological aspect too. The stream of data and growing speed and complexity.

It is time to think more seriously about this avalanche of technology and the resulting environmental and “psycho-ecological” effects. Ecology in IT is ment as a holistic term and means more than “greener chips”.

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