The times are changing – and the semantics of our expressions too.

When I brought the concept of the “Augmented Citizen” into being it was rather narrow, thanks to the context of Government 2.0 Camp in August 2009 (see slideshare.net). Then in December I realized the full potential and future usage patterns of (Social) Mobile Augmented Reality at the AR meeting in Rotterdam (NL). In the keynote I even encouraged the folks to think beyond the interaction concepts and sensory channels of today, when thinking about augmentation. E.g. we can have augmentation and overlays of other perceptive fields than the visual – and with al kinds of immersion in a social-networked surroundings (for Rotterdam AR meeting see blogpost: Augmented Citizen – next: augmented reality ecosystem).

Later mobile business visionary and social technology architect Dan Romescu and I had some fruitful dialogues concerning the evolution scnarios of mobile AR. Actually he seriously caught fire and went to Mobile World Congress as an “Augmented Citizen Advocate”, blogging at http://www.augmentedcitizen.org So I am proud to present our slides from the Mobile AR Summit at MWC.

Are you a skeptic and have read up to here? Then remind that Juniper talks about a market size  of  USD 732 million for 2014. Or just think about slide 8:

Q: Isn‘t AR just a new mode how to display information?

A: Yes, but this in fact means to change the
mode of interaction with the world,
your physical and social reality.

Just as an addon to the previous post talking about mysterious “augmented participation” as a possible growth field here is the colorful Gary Hayes list:

16 Top Augmented Reality Business Models | PERSONALIZE MEDIA

With some well known examples as seen on youtube (2009!). The collection and systematic has not been evaluated by me, just want to kick it in here as a starter for the AR skeptics.

Auguverse?

Google “auguverse” and you will find virtually nothing – however we will call it, the “mixed / augmented reality universe” might be a 1.000 times bigger in 2020 as a information space, than the web of today (measured in counted information objects, not the exabyte volume). Hey, I am a futurist and it is Friday, I can talk like this – with IPv6, sensor web, social ubiquity and internet of things in mind.

Straigt to flickr image in a readable form.

• The site for the gathering: Augmented Reality Ecosystem — V2_ Institute for the Unstable Media http://www.v2.nl/events/ar-ecosystem
• The v2ar community, growing – join! http://v2augmentedreality.ning.com/
• My presentation “Augmented Citizen (towards an ecosystem)” left my mind map behind from time to time, but here is the mind map anyway: http://www.mindmeister.com/36532577

Augmented Citizen

There is a public mind map of the session: https://www.mindmeister.com/28097938

Documentation: Layar, worlds first mobile Augmented Reality browser

Citizen Wiki

The mind map of the session: https://www.mindmeister.com/28161082

More: Schroll: Citizen Wiki » Government 2.0 Camp Dokumentation

Augmented reality startups want iPhone to open up

More than a dozen augmented reality companies have asked Apple to open up the iPhone 3GS’ live video feature for their apps. (mobile-ent.biz)

So wait and see. And iPhone will not stay alone – “Mobile Augmented Reality” could be one of the most exciting trends and disruptive innovations in the next years. Google that phrase and see Nokia on top of the listing … And there is that Layar video from June 2009 (“Browse the world!”).

The World-as-a-Store – uPOS, the “Ubiquitous Point of Sale”

New buzzwords for 2010 might be: MARcommerce. ARcommerce, the long tail of “reality shopping” … Scenario as shown in the clip: See something, get info, get price, (call the owner with the next click if you want), buy it. Hmm, actually a wellknown usage scenario to the futurist – but now it is knocking on your door, no longer a “vision”.

 

 

Augmented reality startups want iPhone to open up | Mobile Content | News by Mobile Entertainmenthttp://www.mobile-ent.biz/news/33644/Augmented-reality-startups-want-iPhone-to-open-up

 

Why twitter matters and how (UXCamp Berlin 2009) – the slideshow at slideshare.net

Shift to “nano conversations” and “micro user experience”

Why talk about microblogging in the context of a thematic barcamp (UXCamp Berlin 2009) about user experience, information architecture and interface design? Since I have written my thesis in information science (FU Berlin), I always have been interested in trends and innovation waves in the realm of media and information. We should not confuse the different trends in the mediasphere around microblogging, microformats and microcontents – but there is a metatrend to a more finegrained web and more finegrained and realtime interaction patterns. For example the twittersphere is the best environment for pandemic meme dynamics hopping from tweet to retweet. Users can discover other users sharing around the same tag / interest – reatlime, nearly without investing “search interaction”.

Twitter as a living search engine versus Google, the cold machine

In the googlesphere Google as the search engine has it’s merits, but it is always a starting point again and again – to put some query, select an item in the listing and so on. In the twitterverse the people are the living search engine – or still better: the discovery engine. So the user experience will change significantly in the next years.

From blogging as online diary to Emergent Sociality of microblogging

Microblogging is a really fascinating phonomenon, since it has a potential going far away from the root metaphor of blogging – the diary. In a sense it is the final deconstruction of writing a diary as a lonly, contemplative activity (with its special dignity) and opens up the possibilities of Emergent Sociality. In the twitterverse we see an unprcedented acceleration of adhoc “cloud building” of hypernetworked human beings around an issue, symbolized and glued together with a little word. That hashtag prefix # is as important as the identifier of the person as sender/receiver, follower/followee and her prefix @.

If you have not started to twitter up to now, don’t be afraid. Test it. It only makes sense to follow people of your interest – else your test will definitely fail. Just follow – you can unfollow someone at any time with no argument needed. My twitter name is @wschroll.
Enough – due to lack of time I am just quoting my description at slideshare.net here – if you enjoy, please just retweet this post. Shortened url for you: http://snipurl.com/twitt

Description at slideshare

Not only the use patterns and dynamics is characteristic in relation to synchronous communication media like chat/IM or asynchronous communication media like email. The user experience and the social/emotional profile are different from other types.

There is a lack of understanding the basic mechanisms of microblogging services like twitter. A analysis of the use patterns and interaction logic makes visible the specifity of twitter and the specific potential of its dynamics.

Details:

Twitter has properties of a social network with strong realtime dynamics. Twitter enables ad hoc community building around events e.g. a barcamp. In this scenario tweets are organized around an event-specific hashtag and a temporary thematic channel emerges.

At the same time twitter works as a realtime discovery engine not only for people but for issues too. When issues are “hashtagged” that realizes a minimalistic semantic layer.

Not only the use patterns and dynamics is characteristic in relation to synchronous communication media like chat/IM or asynchronous communication media like email. The user experience and the social/emotional profile are different from other types.

Update 2009-05-25: Somehow last paragraph did not show up – I fixed this.

See my business mind map

Just follow @willischroll and watch my tweets about emerging trends and the future at twitter.com/willischroll.

Will microblogging kill the blogs, will it kill my blog? No way, don’t worry. Social micro and macro media are in great symbiosis! 140 letters is just too short for complex knowledge communication. But I see a bright future for twitter and other microcommunication stuff. As I twttered: It could be some stem cell (with pluripotent applications) in the coming realtime – social – semantic – sensing – paraphysical Web 3.0. Just think about a mashup like this, found at mashable:

CommunityCamp 2008 was the first of it’s kind in Berlin – a thematic barcamp, focused on the fuzzy issues of community. There were practical down to earth sessions around community management and some sessions for research issues and academic reflection as well. In my first session “Mobile Communities – types, trends, potentials”, I was trying to think forward beyond the services of today. There are apps on the mobile device just to keep in touch, others are location aware or realize social mapping. The combination of 

mobile, social, semantic and sensor technology will bring a new space of possible “socio-technical configurations”. My abbreviation for the monster word “mobile-social-semantic-(sensor)-web“ is “moss web”. Succesful design of the architecture and interface needs a lot of sociological analytics and kind of “social usability” concepts.

The Saturday session was rather huge and we only made first steps to find relevant building blocks and understand the problematic situation of “transparent society” (David Brin 1998). The following Sunday session I held together with “Mo” (Mostafa Akbari, mosworld) a mobile expert from RWTH Aachen. The fruitful discussions resulted in the following slideshow (but I take all responsibility for any weaknesses).

More presentations (German): CommunityCamp Dokumentation

Update: More impressions from the CommunityCamp: blog.blinker.net

Early switchers at earth2tech.com

Fears and hopes

Guess you know Bobby McFerrin’s “Don’t Worry, Be Happy” (youtube). When the wall came down in Berlin some 19 years ago it happened that this easy swinging a cappella sound was the somehow perfect soundtrack for the ambiguity in the mood of the reunified Germans. Ambiguity of fears and hopes – and what followed really was political “change management XXL” – with the inevitable pains of transformation.

Now, this is end of October 2008 and I feel a certain resemblance to the situation of 1989. In these days a lot of commentators suppose that the financial crisis is just the beginning of a longer lasting downturn of the global economy.  

One last look back

Futurists and scenario planning people are prepared for the discontinuities of complex systems. This time the wild card was to expect. Warnings date back to 2006 (nypost.com) and even 2004 (abajournal.com). By the way recession cycles of market economy are observed since its beginnings. And Talebs book about the improbable “black swan” has been written in 2007. But who wants to hear bad news? We have to. That’s why we are implementing early warning systems and pay experts, even futurists. 

Looking forward – Opportunities in times of transformation

This is the time of cutbacks and layoffs, but that is only the one side. At O’Reilly’s Web2Expo Europe some days ago I heard Robin Daniels (Salesforce.com / Cloud Computing: Freedom to Focus on Innovation”). One of the messages was: “Don’t optimize, but innovate!”. So don’t worry to much, for example sustainability will be a sustaining issue. The economy has to be transformed – and on a global scale. There is no alternatiIve – world economy has to go eco, better sooner than later (see my solar stuff posts). This is a time of decisions, actions and making a brave jump. Need more arguments? Look for example to the change in the valley, where bright minds started switching before spring 2008. 25 Who Ditched Infotech for Cleantech « Earth2Tech

Some 3.0? Yes, emerging.

You are still focused in ICT, GPS, graphs, the web, mobile and stuff? No problem, green and IT make a good couple: Energy efficiency, monitoring, sensors, recycling, new mobility solutions … And “Web 3.0″? Whatever the next innovation wave will be called, with its clouds, tweets, id managment, semantics, sensing, mobility, ubiquity – it is knocking. Microsoft just tries to start a  bit of new thinking: Windows Azure: Microsoft mainstreams the cloud | Software as Services | ZDNet.com

Is Google totalizing the infosphere? Cam head for Google's controversial Street View (googlewatchblog.de)

Michael Arrington’s post made the point: Organize All The World’s Information, Then Put Google Ads On It

My comment there:

Google quietly changed from time to time. The “official mission” of organising the worlds information is no lie, but it is the half truth only, as you point out. Google is an advertising company – THE advertising company of the world.

I count it on my fingers. We will see perfectly contextual mobile advertsing FOR EVERYONE soon, for every local business – easy as an Adwords account – it will be an extension of it.

And there is still the dilemma at the core of the business model of Google: Do not make your search results too good to keep the click-through-rate high because this is just the source of revenue. Null sum dilemma. …

Some more musings about Google’s roadmap

Up to now the business model was primarily about online advertising. But exactly in which sense? The brilliance of the Google business model was to run “micro auctions” in the attention hungry attention economy (i.e. Adwords). Every big and small business searching desperately for the “customer one click away” competing with all the other businesses and products.

Ironically the Google search engine is a search engine for information only in an instrumental sense. Looking behind the glass of course you see it’s business purpose is to be a search engine to find customers. If you sometime have controled or managed an Adwords campaign this perspective is quit obvious. This are two sides of the same coin and others have pointed this out too: 

As competition for the best keywords increases, prices go up. Now that the (patented) system is in place, this takes virtually no investment on the part of Google. In this case, it is Google’s customers that are driving the increase in ad revenues for Google. If advertisers want search ad exposure, they have no choice but to pay. Another Reason Google’s Business Model Is Brilliant 

Of course this is a nice model for Google, especially since the company is so dominant in the market. I let Arrington speak again:

It’s unlikely Google will ever find another money machine as efficient as search advertising, which accounts for about 40% of the $40 billion advertising dollars spent online each year. But that doesn’t mean they aren’t going to try. Today they unleashed two new forms of advertisements:click to buy links on YouTube and adsense for Flash games.

… Most people still think of Google as a search business. But what the analysts understood long ago, and the rest of us are realizing now, is that what they really want to do is organize all the world’s information, and then put ads on it. ( Organize All The World’s Information, Then Put Google Ads On It )

Android, Maps, Chrome, user’s data – twine it all together …

But now think about Android, Google Maps, Street View and the fact that Google knows your behavioral data like nobody else (they bought DoubleClick for US$3.1 billion (Wikipedia), and with Chrome there is a new frontline, the browser battle. See the possibilities? Think about revenue sharing when Google enables the click-to-buy in real life settings while you are on your way looking for a restaurant, cab or a movie. ( Think of Augemented Reality too.) That enabling of business is quite better than advertising, which is always only the preparation to business.