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The convergence of information and communication technology is a permanent topic in tech foresight. Now there seems to be a next step in the combination of emergent technologies, that might change our culture in the foundations, actually could change our “cultural DNA”. The material basis for the transformation probably will be a mixed reality of the already emerging Internet of Things, Ambient and Ubiquitous Intelligence – and the maturing new interfaces of wearable Augmented Reality.
Internet of Things – Internet of Everything – Power of Anticipatory Intelligence
Since IPv6 means the unimaginable explosion of the addressable space mankind is prepared for tagging and tracking of everything – goods, vehicles, animals, human beings. Not only managing the data of their trajectories in space and time, but in combination with Big Data and Ubiquitous Intelligence allowing predictive intelligence. The most evolved and complex systems in natural and cultural evolution have created subsystems of anticipatory intelligence – the predator “sees” where the running prey will be in the next tenth of a second. Individuals are making plans over years and decades – as a CEO, a politician or a citizen thinking about the pension. Civilisations have created professions concerned with the future – in modern times based on science, math and computer simulations. The vast “smartization” of the lifeworld will result in much more anticipatory processes, just for the advantage of prediction, but also because of the grown complexity, which in turn might demand more “simulation runs” to find the best decision.
Since the announcments of Google’s project Glass and the amazing prototypes and concept videos there is much noise about it. Actually the view count is near 20 million now and shows the vast interest.
Update 2013-02-22: The graphics on top has been added, though in beta version. Some resemblance with the text and graphics in the newsletter (German text) of the appreciated foresight company Z_punkt is not an accident, since I am quite involved in the process.
Augmented Citizen – a concept for the time to come
The times are changing – and the semantics of our expressions too.
When I brought the concept of the “Augmented Citizen” into being it was rather narrow, thanks to the context of Government 2.0 Camp in August 2009 (see slideshare.net). Then in December I realized the full potential and future usage patterns of (Social) Mobile Augmented Reality at the AR meeting in Rotterdam (NL). In the keynote I even encouraged the folks to think beyond the interaction concepts and sensory channels of today, when thinking about augmentation. E.g. we can have augmentation and overlays of other perceptive fields than the visual – and with al kinds of immersion in a social-networked surroundings (for Rotterdam AR meeting see blogpost: Augmented Citizen – next: augmented reality ecosystem).
Later mobile business visionary and social technology architect Dan Romescu and I had some fruitful dialogues concerning the evolution scnarios of mobile AR. Actually he seriously caught fire and went to Mobile World Congress as an “Augmented Citizen Advocate”, blogging at http://www.augmentedcitizen.org So I am proud to present our slides from the Mobile AR Summit at MWC.
Are you a skeptic and have read up to here? Then remind that Juniper talks about a market size of USD 732 million for 2014. Or just think about slide 8:
Q: Isn‘t AR just a new mode how to display information?
A: Yes, but this in fact means to change the
mode of interaction with the world,
your physical and social reality.
16 business models for Augmented Reality (remind the hype curve)
Just as an addon to the previous post talking about mysterious “augmented participation” as a possible growth field here is the colorful Gary Hayes list:
Google “auguverse” and you will find virtually nothing – however we will call it, the “mixed / augmented reality universe” might be a 1.000 times bigger in 2020 as a information space, than the web of today (measured in counted information objects, not the exabyte volume). Hey, I am a futurist and it is Friday, I can talk like this – with IPv6, sensor web, social ubiquity and internet of things in mind.
Straigt to flickr image in a readable form.
There was an inspiring AR congress in Rotterdam, NL, on 4th of Dec and I had the honor to be in the hosting team with Claire Boonstra (from famous LAYAR) Christina Rittchen (Mobilizy – the guys from Austria, who created Wikitude), Truus Dokter of ItFits, Jan Misker (project manager for V2_ AR), Artm Baguinski, Carl William Kerchmar, Kwela Sabine Hermanns. See links for more here: http://portaltoyourdreamsblog.blogspot.com/2009/12/v2-ar-ecosystem-hosting-team.html
- The site for the gathering: Augmented Reality Ecosystem — V2_ Institute for the Unstable Media http://www.v2.nl/events/ar-ecosystem
- The v2ar community, growing – join! http://v2augmentedreality.ning.com/
- My presentation “Augmented Citizen (towards an ecosystem)” left my mind map behind from time to time, but here is the mind map anyway: http://www.mindmeister.com/36532577
- Find developer camps for Augmented Reality next to you: ardevcamp.org
- changed word: gathering
One year ago I blogged that post: iPhone 2010: Bet on mixed reality apps as a standard - and I felt the risk to fail with my prediction. Today I have found some news concerning that speculations:
Augmented reality startups want iPhone to open up
More than a dozen augmented reality companies have asked Apple to open up the iPhone 3GS’ live video feature for their apps. (mobile-ent.biz)
So wait and see. And iPhone will not stay alone – “Mobile Augmented Reality” could be one of the most exciting trends and disruptive innovations in the next years. Google that phrase and see Nokia on top of the listing … And there is that Layar video from June 2009 (“Browse the world!”).
The World-as-a-Store – uPOS, the “Ubiquitous Point of Sale”
New buzzwords for 2010 might be: MARcommerce. ARcommerce, the long tail of “reality shopping” … Scenario as shown in the clip: See something, get info, get price, (call the owner with the next click if you want), buy it. Hmm, actually a wellknown usage scenario to the futurist – but now it is knocking on your door, no longer a “vision”.
Augmented reality startups want iPhone to open up | Mobile Content | News by Mobile Entertainmenthttp://www.mobile-ent.biz/news/33644/Augmented-reality-startups-want-iPhone-to-open-up
Dear reader, you realized my low blogging frequency. I am so busy with projects and my own business development of <Strategic Labs> in these days of exciting developments in the media and communication industry.
Just follow @willischroll and watch my tweets about emerging trends and the future at twitter.com/willischroll.
Will microblogging kill the blogs, will it kill my blog? No way, don’t worry. Social micro and macro media are in great symbiosis! 140 letters is just too short for complex knowledge communication. But I see a bright future for twitter and other microcommunication stuff. As I twttered: It could be some stem cell (with pluripotent applications) in the coming realtime – social – semantic – sensing – paraphysical Web 3.0. Just think about a mashup like this, found at mashable:
“Social usability” will be a key concept for succesful merging of social and mobile sphere
CommunityCamp 2008 was the first of it’s kind in Berlin – a thematic barcamp, focused on the fuzzy issues of community. There were practical down to earth sessions around community management and some sessions for research issues and academic reflection as well. In my first session “Mobile Communities – types, trends, potentials”, I was trying to think forward beyond the services of today. There are apps on the mobile device just to keep in touch, others are location aware or realize social mapping. The combination of
Fears and hopes
Guess you know Bobby McFerrin’s “Don’t Worry, Be Happy” (youtube). When the wall came down in Berlin some 19 years ago it happened that this easy swinging a cappella sound was the somehow perfect soundtrack for the ambiguity in the mood of the reunified Germans. Ambiguity of fears and hopes – and what followed really was political “change management XXL” – with the inevitable pains of transformation.
Now, this is end of October 2008 and I feel a certain resemblance to the situation of 1989. In these days a lot of commentators suppose that the financial crisis is just the beginning of a longer lasting downturn of the global economy.
One last look back
Futurists and scenario planning people are prepared for the discontinuities of complex systems. This time the wild card was to expect. Warnings date back to 2006 (nypost.com) and even 2004 (abajournal.com). By the way recession cycles of market economy are observed since its beginnings. And Talebs book about the improbable “black swan” has been written in 2007. But who wants to hear bad news? We have to. That’s why we are implementing early warning systems and pay experts, even futurists.
Looking forward – Opportunities in times of transformation
This is the time of cutbacks and layoffs, but that is only the one side. At O’Reilly’s Web2Expo Europe some days ago I heard Robin Daniels (Salesforce.com / Cloud Computing: Freedom to Focus on Innovation”). One of the messages was: “Don’t optimize, but innovate!”. So don’t worry to much, Read the rest of this entry »