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Early switchers at earth2tech.com
Fears and hopes
Guess you know Bobby McFerrin’s “Don’t Worry, Be Happy” (youtube). When the wall came down in Berlin some 19 years ago it happened that this easy swinging a cappella sound was the somehow perfect soundtrack for the ambiguity in the mood of the reunified Germans. Ambiguity of fears and hopes – and what followed really was political “change management XXL” – with the inevitable pains of transformation.
Now, this is end of October 2008 and I feel a certain resemblance to the situation of 1989. In these days a lot of commentators suppose that the financial crisis is just the beginning of a longer lasting downturn of the global economy.
One last look back
Futurists and scenario planning people are prepared for the discontinuities of complex systems. This time the wild card was to expect. Warnings date back to 2006 (nypost.com) and even 2004 (abajournal.com). By the way recession cycles of market economy are observed since its beginnings. And Talebs book about the improbable “black swan” has been written in 2007. But who wants to hear bad news? We have to. That’s why we are implementing early warning systems and pay experts, even futurists.
Looking forward – Opportunities in times of transformation
This is the time of cutbacks and layoffs, but that is only the one side. At O’Reilly’s Web2Expo Europe some days ago I heard Robin Daniels (Salesforce.com / Cloud Computing: Freedom to Focus on Innovation”). One of the messages was: “Don’t optimize, but innovate!”. So don’t worry to much, Read the rest of this entry »
Startups? The party is over (tag it just “pink slip”)
We will see mass extinction of some tiny web services – so if you have some assets there, like some thousand relevant bookmarks, pictures or documents on some free service, now is the time to save it on your harddrive. Maybe tomorrow the server is down, maybe not. I have seen this all, when the first dotcom-bubble burst, and it will be just the same procedure. The big web 2.0 services (and Googzilla’s free services) will survive, but maybe will not be free anymore … Next post will be about the good news, the chances of this cleaning up, I’ll try! Interested in the tech sector, advantages of the crisis? For now read 10 Ways the Financial Meltdown Impacts Tech – Seeking Alpha
Via our (still beloved?) TechCrunch a lengthy presentation: Sequoia Capital’s 56 Slide Presentation Of Doom
Is Google totalizing the infosphere? Cam head for Google's controversial Street View (googlewatchblog.de)
Michael Arrington’s post made the point: Organize All The World’s Information, Then Put Google Ads On It
My comment there:
Google quietly changed from time to time. The “official mission” of organising the worlds information is no lie, but it is the half truth only, as you point out. Google is an advertising company – THE advertising company of the world.
I count it on my fingers. We will see perfectly contextual mobile advertsing FOR EVERYONE soon, for every local business – easy as an Adwords account – it will be an extension of it.
And there is still the dilemma at the core of the business model of Google: Do not make your search results too good to keep the click-through-rate high because this is just the source of revenue. Null sum dilemma. …
Some more musings about Google’s roadmap
Up to now the business model was primarily about online advertising. But exactly in which sense? The brilliance of the Google business model was to run “micro auctions” in the attention hungry attention economy (i.e. Adwords). Every big and small business searching desperately for the “customer one click away” competing with all the other businesses and products. Read the rest of this entry »
The System is falsified – but which one, exactly?
Hello domino crash! The impact of the super-connected world finance system on itself (it is highly self-referential you know) is stronger than the 9/11 attack. Tokio with lowest stocks since 1987. German DAX today starts again with crash below 4.900. The following chart shows indicators of crisis and fear, so says econompicdata.blogspot.com. Anxious people start buying things they need in severe crisis: soup cans and tasers (S&P 500 is reference). Should I laugh or should I cry?
Crisis indicators? People buy more soup cans and ... tasers.
After Armageddon: Transparency will be the key
Global economy could recover as early as end of 2009, a former chief of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) told a business conference in Manila Tuesday.
”… Michel Camdessus, former managing director of the IMF and an honorary governor of Banque de France, told audience attending the 7th Management Association of the Philippines in Makati City that monetary leaders need to meet several conditions to make sure the impact of the US financial crisis permeating around the world halts before 2009 ends.
Collective knowledge. Search behavior according to Google trends, 9/29, last 12 month.
Futurists and analysts are rather bored by some trend phenomena. For example there are trends with rather high predictability and long waves of change – as in demographics. What is exciting and frightening at the same time is the surprise, the unpredicted event with a high impact and a turbulent change pattern. Yesterday 2008-09-29 was historical – the “Black Monday of 2008″.
After a political decision against the rescue plan to save the financial system from collapse the US stockmarket suffered the severest loss in history, more than after the 9/11 disaster. The loss of trust seems to spread from the economical powers to political powers. With high impact to the world economy and maybe geopolitical power equilibrium. Are we witnesses of the agony of a super power – and cui bono? Europe, Russia, China? Read the rest of this entry »
SIGNAL: Carrotmob is an initiative, which could become a globally spreading use pattern. Like in the collective activity of flash mobs people organize in the real world. But not for fun but for a strategic cause – to reward the local shop with the most environment friendly politics.
CONTEXT/PRECURSOR: Consumers know that their shopping behavior is a weapon. Aware consumers use “shop mobs” to lower the price.
We have heard about shop mobs in 2006:
Tuangou, or team buying, aims to drive unprecedented bargains by combining the reach of the internet with the power of the mob. It is spreading through China like wildfire. Economist
On the socio-technical side there is the behavior pattern of flash mobs since 2003 (Wikipedia), enabled by networked people. Flash mobs have started as a kind of rather dadaistic fun thing. Read the rest of this entry »
Daniel G. Nocera, MIT - Photo Donna Coveney
FACT: Daniel Nocera (MIT) developed a new catalyst for the storage of solar power. The catalyst is much cheaper than the precious metal platinum.
Chemist Daniel Nocera, head of the M.I.T.’s Solar Revolution Project, has found a substitute for platinum (>USD 1,700/ounce). The components of the catalyst are the cobalte (USD 2.25) and phoshor (USD 0.05). Concerning the components this means a cost effectiveness factor of around 1,000. The discovery is seen as breakthrough.
CONTEXT: The advance is a key discovery in the context of efforts to create artificial photosynthesis.
Researchers have made a major advance in inorganic chemistry that could lead to a cheap way to store energy from the sun. Technology Review
RELEVANCE: Efficient local solar systems (“solar at home” – with no storage problem) change the game.
- There is an increased competitiveness of solar power and an impact for conventional energy generation and infrastructures
- Technology to store energy is relevant beyond solar energy generation, e.g. volatile wind power
- Winners: The more autonomous “solar prosumer” (esp. in sun rich zones).
- Loosers: Fossil based energy companies
- Comeback of the hydrogen vision as a realistic scenario is possible – even with the hydrogen car getting the energy from the rooftop
- Solar society* before 2020 in some regions of the world
(* “solar society” i.e. with a solar energy share >> 50%? – I have no definition up to now)
RELATED POSTS
SOURCES
- MIT News Office: ‘Major discovery’ from MIT primed to unleash solar revolution
- Technology Review: Solar-Power Breakthrough
- Scientific American: Hydrogen Power on the Cheap–Or at Least, Cheaper
Update 2008-08-03
- Picture + hyperlink MIT News Office
