Mr. Schirrmacher is one of the smartest minds in Germany, commenting latest developments in the media business and the radical challenges for the print media and their business models. I even share a lot of his worries concerning information overload. Clay Shirky famously said: “It’s Not Information Overload. It’s Filter Failure.” – but, Clay, does not the filter management (= social media management) today cost us to much of our valuable time? Schirrmacher is quite right in analyzing the trouble of “digital life” complexity.
Time of transition, yes
Confession: I personally got rather tired of social media and the social network issue, often I am even skeptic about the longterm effects of social hyperconnectivity. Construcitve turn: Thinking about the future of balanced connectivity and tools for that. Actually I am thinking like so much folks about the transition from Web 2.0 to the next paradigm and how this will look like (web squared, third wave, pragmatic web, synaptic web, just “Web 3,0″?)
iPad pre-configures usage patterns, yes
Mr. Schirrmacher commented on the nice new shiny i-thing in town, the iPad (Die Politik des iPad, faz.net). Steve Jobs actually is a top business genius, may be the top in consumer IT today. Schirrmacher is right to think about the “politics of the iPad”. Hardware, end devices and their layout shape our doings and action patterns, channel our needs and wishes. But Schirrmacher is not quite right, when he thinks that the web of the future will not be so participative – after the iPad.
Participation will change, grow – Augmented Reality participation tools ahead
With mobile end devices allowing to contribute reviews, ratings (thumbs up/down) in a monent, participation will change in content, effort and intention. In the nearest future every smart phone has augmented reality apps as a standard. This will enable us to post annotations just in the physical space around us, attached to buildings, things, shops, even persons with some face recognition. Finally, new participation tools are spreading, pushing transparency – with huge impact to society and our lifestyle, shifting values (for more see Augmented Citizen post).
Participation today – facts and figures
Until we see this new media universe unfold, I just recommend to click to personalizemedia.com/the-count to see the impressive numbers (screenshot). Do not get me wrong here, I definitely do not consider me an “evangelist” of the social web, it is creating so much low quality content, noise and split attention – like mass media too, I just want to show, that, as a matter of fact, the participatory web is still quite alive.
[Quote from personalizemedia.com/the-count:]
The social web has exploded in the last year and below are some of the key data points that the ‘Gary’s Social Media Count’ is based on (many will be updated!).
- 20 hours of video uploaded every minute onto YouTube (source YouTube blog Aug 09)
- Facebook 600k new members per day, and photos, videos per month, 700mill & 4 mill respectively (source Inside Facebook Feb 09)
- Twitter 18 million new users per year & 4 million tweets sent daily (source TechCrunch Apr 09)
- iPolicy UK – SMS messaging has a bright future (Aug 09)
- 900 000 blogs posts put up every day (source Technorati State of the Blogosphere 2008)
- YouTube daily, 96 million videos watched, $1mill bandwidth costs (source Comscore Jul 06 !)
- UPDATE: YouTube 1Billion watched per day SMH (2009)- counter updated!
- Second Life 250k virtual goods made daily, text messages 1250 per second (source Linden Lab release Sep 09)
- Money – $5.5 billion on virtual goods (casual & game worlds) even Facebooks gifts make $70 million annually (source Viximo Aug 09)
- Flickr has 73 million visitors a month who upload 700 million photos (source Yahoo Mar 09)
- Mobile social network subscribers – 92.5 million at the end of 2008, by end of 2013 rising to between 641.6-873.1 million or 132 mill annually (source Informa PDF)
- SMS – Over 2.3 trillion messages will be sent across major markets worldwide in 2008 (source Everysingleoneofus sms statistics)
The promising triangle: Citizen – open data – mobile access
There is a virulent aspect of participatory acitivities, I missed to mention adequately: The “open data” movement around the world – think of all the maps and apps, which emerged around the data.gov initiative, e.g. opning up a huge administration like in NYC Data Mine.
Update 2010-08-12: Modified the title, which might have sounded a bit aggressive, what is not my intention (“Web 2.0 future? Check out “augmented participation”, Mr. Schirrmacher”)