Future politics: Will Obama win with “swarm tactics”?

my.barackobama.com knows the tools of the social, viral, swarming web

It was not an easy task for Barack Obama’s team to find the right “historical place” for his appearance in Berlin. I am a foresight consultant (in Berlin) with a focus on technology, esp. ICT – but as a futurist I have to keep my scope broad up to 360 degrees – causal hyperconnectedness of things, you know …

Today I ponder about the interference of technology and politics. There has been written a lot about how the internet esp. the social media of web 2.0 changed the way of doing politics. But often the analytical categories don’t match the dynamic reality of the web.

I want to introduce the “swarm” as a serious category for a better understanding of things happening when some millions of connected users are losely coupled, interact and follow tags, interests, people, events, brands and … politicians.

SIGNAL: A political blogger is conceiving a new phenomena in the context of online campaigning

The democrats.org blogger “JMesserly” wrote on Mar 27th, 2008:

Notice is being taken of the connection between new phenomena: Swarm politics, Blog swarms, Fear in the ranks of traditional party and PAC professionals towards armies of volunteers that are indifferent and even hostile towards their efforts at command and control.

Folks may find this article interesting in the context of the newly dominant role of internet communications which is enabling a revolution in the way politics and collective activities like Wikipedia or Kiva can and are working today. [...] We must consider how the dynamics of swarm theory can be leveraged on the internet and in the marketplace to rapidly and decisively attack social problems. [my emphasis]

I found this post when I was googling in preparation of a presentation about swarm intelligence and its effective applications. There was this idea, that swarms are formations, that will play a role in the future. There have been four occasions of “public thinking” about swarms an their limits as a new organisational model – a tiny wiki has been initiated – swarmology.pbwiki.com

CONTEXT: From web 2.0 community to web 3.0 swarm dynamics

In 2008 we see a ripe environment of web 2.0 with a lot of people using social media routinely. Teens grow up with facebook, youtube and mobile twitter. And with the feed world there comes something new.

RELEVANCE: “Ecology” of communication and companion is extended and more fluid in the future

Maybe Obama can win with swarm mobilisation effects in the internet – and is the first “user generated president” of the USA. Swarms with their flexibility can play a role in the future. But to be true: I am sure that the “establishment” has some ideas to stop the “swarms of change”. And don’t forget, it is nearly impossible to impose control on a “swarm of self-thinking individuals” from the outside.

by the way: polls are so 1.0 – prediction markets e.g. at intrade.com are a more accurate tool

Update 2008-07-24 LT 01:12

• “And with the feed world there comes something new.” Need some explanation? What I mean is micro blogging like twitter or something like mini feeds on facebook – the interesting thing there is: the user experience is more that of a swarm, not a community with “stable border” in a sociological sense. User joins “gradually” – not in a discrete sense of being member/not member, when he signs up formally. Just notice the basic relation type of twitter, the “following” relation, you are “followed” and have “followers” – and that is a relation type of swarms.
• Inserted the screenshot detail from my.barackobama.com
• Inserted the intrade.com screenshot

Update 2008-07-26 LT 17:04

• Related stuff: Obama and Politics 2.0: Documenting History in Real-Time
  A conversation with Arun Chaudhary, director of field production for Barack Obama, and Ellen McGirt, Senior Writer for Fast Company – July 16th 2008, video at designmind.frogdesign.com